The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a Geneva-based UN agency, has warned that there is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5C above the pre-industrial level for at least one of the next five years, and pleaded for rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update also reveals a 93 per cent likelihood of at least one year between 2022 to 2026 becoming the warmest on record, thus knocking 2016 from the top spot.
The chance of the five-year average for this period being higher than the last five years, 2017-2021, is also 93 per cent.
The 1.5 C target is the goal of the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to take concerted climate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming.
This study shows with a high level of scientific skill that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, Petteri Taalas, the WMO Secretary-General, said in a statement.
The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic, he added, but rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet. The chance of temporarily exceeding the 1.5C thresholds has risen steadily since 2015, according to the report, which was produced by the United Kingdom Met Office, the WMO lead center for climate update predictions.
Back then, it was close to zero, but the probability increased to 10 per cent over the past five years, and to nearly 50 per cent for the period from 2022 to 2026.
Taalas warned that as long as countries continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise.
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