Thursday, July 17, 2014

Russian energy industry to lose $150-200 billion on fresh sanctions (to hit the plans to develop Arctic offshore fields)

Newly adopted Western sanctions against Russia will inflict at least $150-200 billion of losses upon the Russian energy industry, head of the advisory firm Creon Energy working in this field, Fares Kilzie, told ITAR-TASS.
“These are not some random sanctions - they are solely targeted against Russia’s and Russian energy sector’s sore points,” the expert said. “These are intercorporate sanctions that hit certain companies and certain interests.” In particular, sanctions against Rosneft hit the plans to develop Arctic offshore fields and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, while measures against Novatek are aimed at hampering plans with Yamal LNG project.

Meanwhile, Gazprombank will have its equipment and energy plans affected, Kilzie believes.
“Gazprombank does not only hold 49% of Vladivostok LNG - one of its subsidiaries is the United Heavy Machinery Plants (OMZ) operating in import substitution. The companies’ losses will be increasing,” Kilzie said. “All major projects are monopolized by a certain group. A blow to this group’s investments leads to investment losses of others - those who wait for these offshore or LNG projects, namely logistics, transport, technological and technical companies.”
Moreover, the expert is sure sanctions will be expanded and spread onto second-and third-tier companies. 

“I have no doubt at all that the next salvo will be at the second tier. The first tier is the source of ideology and financing for all major energy projects. The second tier comprises contractors. Judging from the sanction list alone, the Russian companies will lose $150-200 billion. Novatek project alone costs more than $20 billion,” said the expert.
According to Kilzie, sanction architects have good understanding of the Russian energy sector. “The list of companies indicates good knowledge of our energy decision-making matrix. Sanctions are really proactive. Modern energy consultants in the West work consistently,” Kilzie said.

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