The mortality projections cover the period from June 2026, when the current El Niño began, through February 2027.
The Climate Impact Lab estimates the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44% compared with normal years, with the heaviest toll expected in countries with fewer resources to adapt.
The Sahel region is projected to record 66,800 additional heat deaths from September through February. Southeast Asia could see nearly 39,000 additional deaths, while India and Brazil are projected to record 15,800 and 13,300, respectively.
Scientists warn that due to the current "super El Niño," land temperatures could rise to approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, with a 44% increase in days of extreme heat compared to the average.
ReplyDeleteThey estimate that the heat could lead to around 239,000 additional deaths worldwide over the next six months, and up to 451,000 during the first nine months of the phenomenon.
Countries in the Global South, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, Chad, nations in Southeast Asia, India, Indonesia, and Brazil, will be hit the hardest.
Researchers emphasize that such temperatures could become the norm within a few decades. However, some of these deaths could still be prevented if aid is directed to the most vulnerable regions in advance.