Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Tropical Storm Joaquin Is Now Hurricane Joaquin

Hurricane Joaquin strengthened some more on Wednesday morning as it moves toward the Bahamas.

At 11 a.m. the center of the system was about 215 miles east-northeast of the Central Bahamas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum sustained winds increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Additional strengthening is expected and Joaquin could become a major hurricane during the next couple of days.

Joaquin was moving toward the southwest near 6 mph. It’s forecast to continue to move toward the west-southwest or southwest through Wednesday night. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed are forecast on Thursday or Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding Andros Island

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the Central Bahamas by Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area Wednesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the southeastern Bahamas through Friday night, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the northwestern Bahamas.

Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the United States by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions...


1 comment:

  1. Hurricane Joaquin Upgraded to Category 3 Storm ...

    Hurricane Joaquin has been upgraded to a Category 3 storm as it approaches the Bahamas.

    The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said late Wednesday that Joaquin's winds have increased to a sustained speed of about 185 kilometers per hour.

    The center says the storm may turn northwest after passing through the central and northwestern Bahamas and head for the mid-Atlantic states on the eastern U.S. coast.

    A hurricane warning has been issued for Grand Bahama and New Providence islands, where much of the population is concentrated.

    Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami predict the storm will pass over the Bahamas Thursday and Friday. The long-term forecast for the storm predicts it may approach the U.S. coastline by Sunday.

    Joaquin's track after the Bahamas is difficult to forecast. But at least one computer model has it going straight into the Chesapeake Bay of Virginia and Maryland Sunday and Monday as a Category 2 storm, which would be bad news for such major inland cities as Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.

    Another track has it going out to sea, away from the coast.
    Separately, a low pressure system stalled over the eastern seaboard is forecast to drench coastal cites Thursday and Friday with several centimeters of rain.


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